As per the IPCC report, the latter goal is quickly sliding out of range because nations are not cutting carbon dioxide emissions quickly enough, which is boosting the global average temperature. According to scientists, in the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report published today, ” there are numerous, feasible, and economical solutions for decreasing emissions of greenhouse gases and coping with human-caused environmental issues “.
They also added by stating that many changes in the climate system amplify in direct proportion to rising global temperatures. This encompasses a rise in the degree of severity and frequency of rising temperatures, ocean extreme weather events, and torrential rains; droughts impacting some ecosystems and supporting agriculture; an increase in the frequency of intense tropical cyclones; and declines in the Arctic’s sea ice, snowfall, and bedrock. It is made apparent in the report that while environmental factors will moderate changes brought about by humans, particularly at the local scale and in the near run, they will not have a significant impact on long-term global climate change.
Current Scenario
Around the world, cities are anticipated to expand by up to 90%; a considerable percentage of this will occur in India So far, communities are particularly severe contexts for climate change; for instance, urban heat disproportionately affects youngsters and underprivileged communities, especially in South Asia where there is a lack of facilities. In addition to the temperature, South and Southeast Asian cities would collectively account for 75 percent of urban land at high risk for disaster.
With one of the greatest coastal defence gaps in the world, South Asia’s numerous coastal towns are comparatively vulnerable to rising sea levels. Urban droughts, which pose a threat to these cities due to water constraints, are incredibly hazardous for Delhi, Karachi, and Kolkata. There is no question that human-caused emissions, propelled by our dependence on petroleum and other fossil fuels, are wreaking havoc on the planet. Indeed, human influence has contributed to global warming. With a 1.5°C (2.7°F) increase in global warming over the next two decades, numerous climatic problems are unavoidable. Perhaps momentarily slipping above this temperature threshold will have significant consequences, some of which could be irrevocable.
The threats to humanity will escalate, particularly those to low-lying coastal towns and infrastructure. More quickly than in any other 50-year period over the previous 2000 years, the average global surface temperature has risen since 1970. Atmospheric CO2 levels in 2019 were the highest they had been in at least 2 million years, and methane and nitrous oxide levels were the highest they had been in at least 800,000 years. As temperatures rise, ecosystems are affected, leading to widespread extinctions of species on land as well as in the sea.
Extreme heat events are increasing disease and risk of death, while climate change has decreased food security and impacted water security. Individuals are losing their residences and financial resources as a result of these widespread climatic consequences, which are also aggravating socioeconomic and gender inequality.
Future Consequences
Future climate change, concerns, and long-term responses
What is the 1.5°C guardrail?
According to the most optimistic and only Paris-aligned pathway (SSP1-1.9), we have a 50% chance of keeping global warming to roughly 1.5°C by the end of the century with no overrun or minimal transgression. The earliest date when the global warming of 1.5°C is predicted to occur is short, which this report defines as 2040 or earlier.
The first half of the 2030s corresponds to the midpoint of the first 20-year running average during which the evaluated worldwide average surface temperature rise reaches 1.5°C in all scenarios taken into consideration by Working Group-I, except for the very high emissions circumstance (SSP5-8.5).
Global warming is not a possible event. Increased human emissions of heat-trapping greenhouse gases are altering the Earth’s climate, which is already having a significant impact on the environment. Glaciers and ice sheets are melting, lake and river ice is breaking, vegetation and animal ranges are transitioning, and trees and shrubs are blooming pretty early. Since a warmer planet doesn’t retain as much carbon, natural land, and ocean carbon sinks are anticipated to absorb less CO2 also.
Rising temperatures bring Extremes, instability, and unpredictability. All significant components of the climate system will be impacted by ongoing emissions, and changes in extremes will become more severe with every degree of warming. With any further warming, the world’s water cycle becomes unpredictable, there are more powerful tropical cyclones, massive flooding, catastrophic sea level events, and droughts and fires.
The estimated long-term impacts are up to many times larger than what is already observed, and many climate-related risks are greater than in AR5. With every degree of global warming, the expected impacts and associated losses and damages increase, which has implications for managing climate risk in a warmer environment.
Beyond 2100, hazards to coastal ecosystems, people, and infrastructure will rise as a result of unavoidable sea level rise. Risks associated with climate change will interact with risks associated with other factors, becoming more complicated and challenging to control and creating escalating risks.
As global warming progresses, it is anticipated that climate-driven food insecurity and supply instability will worsen, interacting with non-climatic risk factors including conflict, epidemics, and the fight for land between urban development and agricultural production. On a warming planet, our options are more limited. Options for adaptation that are practical and efficient today will become considerably less effective as global warming progresses. Also, as losses and damages rise, more natural and human systems will run up against their capacity for adaptation. Constraints on adaptability as well as losses and damages that are heavily concentrated among vulnerable populations will get harder to avert.
The direction that future human activities take will determine how severe the effects of climate change are. But, the extent to which we emit carbon dioxide will determine these long-term repercussions. So, some of the worst effects might be avoided if we can lower emissions.
How India will be Affected ?
The monsoon season is significant to India’s agricultural industry. Nonetheless, there have been more days with exceptionally heavy rain over the past century with prolonged times of drought in between. This has had a significant influence on India’s central belt, which stretches from western Maharashtra State to the Gulf of Bengal, and has experienced a threefold rise in extreme rainfall incidents in the last 70 years, as well as a decline in overall yearly precipitation.
The infrastructure of coastal towns like Chennai, Mumbai, Mangalore, Vizag, and many others is seriously threatened by the sea level rise. As sea temperatures rise, additional cyclones are predicted to develop in the Indian Ocean, the Bay of Bengal, and the Arabian Sea.
Cyclone intensity could increase in the future beyond previous averages. India’s cities could become more filthy as CO2 levels decline. Delhi, Bangalore, and Gurugram are already having trouble breathing. More summer heat waves could threaten north India as a result of rising temperatures. If we didn’t cut back on CO2 emissions, intensive agriculture would suffer, which would raise prices across the board. We may have dry monsoons in several regions of the country because of the erratic nature of the global water cycles. Some significant effects that could be seen soon include drought and forest fires.
Even if India decides to put off the decision of whether or not to enhance its carbon reduction objectives for the time being, it will still need to deal with the issue of escalating catastrophic occurrences that are mostly caused by unstable environmental processes.